After reaching an agreement on the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement, Mexico and the United States (USA) seemed to begin a new stage of cordiality. Without the usual tweets of the American president or uncomfortable statements from the Mexican chancellery, everything seemed to go smoothly. However, today because of the caravan of migrants from Central America, Mexico faces a difficult dilemma: meet the needs of its partner and continue their honeymoon or follow the good will of humanitarian values and the demands of the international community.
Migration is a global problem. Be Syrians and Africans arriving in Europe, causing a crisis and division in the European Union, up to the hundreds of Mexicans who cross the border into the US who Trump loves so much (wink).
The migration issue has been a serious problem in the relationship between Mexico and the US more palpably since the seventies. Already in those years a solution to the problem was sought. In the early 2000s, there was a light of hope to solve the problem during Vicente Fox’s administration and thanks to the work of Jorge Castañeda. However, 9/11 and all the subsequent changes diminished any chance of reaching a realistic agreement on the subject. From then on, each administration handled it in its own way, but never found a lasting and effective solution.
With the appearance of Trump, the migration of Mexicans and Central Americans was politicized to such an extent that the border wall with Mexico became the anchor proposal of his political campaign.
Ever since he announced his candidacy, Trump insulted Mexican migrants, something that continued even after being elected president of the most powerful country in the world.
However, on September 30, the governments of the NAFTA countries announced the achievement of a new trade agreement, with new terms, under the name of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
From there on, everything has been peace and love with the United States … Or not? Well today things are complicated. Why? Well, since this last weekend thousands of people from Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala march in order to reach the southern US. And yes, they all have to go through Mexico to reach their destination.
This has caused Trump to revive his anti-immigration speech, something seen as the continuance of his traditional rhetoric and also as an element that may be beneficial for his voters in the legislative elections on November 6.
Donald threatened to withdraw aid funds for the Central American countries, close the border with Mexico and send the National Guard if Peña Nieto’s government failed to block immigrant entrance.
In Mexico there have been different points of view. Some say they will not let immigrants in without a visa, while others, like governor Chiapa’s governor Velasco, state that they will allow free transit. López Obrador has already stated that he wants to offer them work visas so that they can stay in Mexico.
Our country faces an important dilemma: to cooperate with the Trump administration, not to let migrants go and repatriate them, or to take humanitarian action, to let them pass and let our northern neighbor handle alone by its own terms.
The traditional pragmatism of Mexican foreign policy was already evident when Mexico began to militarize the border with Guatemala. At least we already won Trump’s congratulations via Tweeter (nowadays a great recognition).
But at the same time, the Mexican Secretary of Foreign Relations asked the UN for help to act on the caravan, something that indicates that Peña’s government is willing to help, but that, in order not to enrage President Trump, it will bet on multilateralism to find a solution that satisfies both the US and the international community. Can it be done? We still do not know, it is perhaps the last major challenge at the level of foreign policy of the Peña administration, and its consequences will undoubtedly affect the relationship with the US of Obrador’s presidency.
Alfonso Figueroa Saldaña is an International Relations student at the BUAP. He has studies in Political Science at the Ludwig-Maximilians University in Munich and he is interested in German-Mexican cooperation and European issues.
Email: af.94.333@gmail.com Tweeter: _AF94
